Topic 8: WATCHLIST OF THE EVENTS IN 2025

Donald Trump's Inauguration
On 20th January 2025, the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump is anticipated to create uncertainty regarding U.S. policies on trade, immigration, and diplomacy. Market watchers will closely monitor his administration's approach, as any significant shifts could have ripple effects on the Indian equity market.

US Federal Reserve Meeting
U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, will continue to influence investor sentiment in India. After Trump administration markets expects significant changes in global markets or trade relations could lead to volatility in Indian stocks.

Union Budget 2025
The Union Budget will detail the government's fiscal policies and spending plans for the upcoming year. Investors will be keenly focused on measures aimed at driving growth, boosting infrastructure investment, and supporting key sectors such as consumption and finance. Positive announcements in these areas have the potential to enhance market sentiment and provide a boost to investor confidence.

Monetary Policy by RBI
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might consider cutting interest rates by February 2025 if inflation stabilizes. A rate cut would lower borrowing costs and potentially boost sectors such as housing and consumption, positively influencing market performance.

Indian State Elections
With key state elections approaching, market sentiment may be influenced by the outcomes and their impact on policy continuity. Investors will focus on whether the results strengthen the central government’s mandate, which could pave the way for stronger economic reforms. A decisive win may boost confidence in the government's ability to implement policy changes, while uncertainty could lead to short-term volatility in equity markets. As the elections unfold, both businesses and investors should closely monitor developments, weighing the potential for reform against the risks of political instability

Geopolitical Tensions
Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Ukraine and Russia, as well as Iran and Israel, will be closely watched. Additionally, trade dynamics between the US and China are expected to influence the Indian markets. Any developments, whether resolutions or escalations, in these conflicts could disrupt global supply chains and impact energy prices, thereby affecting Indian investors.

Corporate Results for Q4 FY25
The performance of corporate earnings in Q4 FY25 will play a critical role in shaping market expectations. Analysts are cautious about potential earnings slowdowns, which could undermine investor confidence if companies report disappointing results.

Inflation Trends
Persistent inflationary pressures, particularly from food prices, may influence RBI's monetary policy decisions. If inflation remains high, it could delay interest rate cuts and affect consumer spending, thereby impacting corporate earnings and stock valuations



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